2008 presidential election

John Baer: You Know She's Not Going Anywhere...

The one thing I don’t understand here is why change the rules, John? They’ve kept attention on the Democratic contest and highlighted why the primary schedule can produce a long primary. It seems to me that the latter part of that is the problem, not the rules themselves.

YOU KNOW she’s not going away.

You know the spin today, tomorrow, next week (bring on West Virginia!) will be about how she’s a fighter who never gives up (bring on Kentucky!).

So, despite Barack Obama’s big North Carolina win and much better-than-expected showing in Indiana, you know there’s more to come. Makes me crazy.  read more »


Despite Primary Vote, Carney Stays on the Fence

At this point, I suspect some super-delegates, like freshmen Congressmen in tough districts, for instance, are worried about publicly declaring support for anyone. Rep. Chris Carney’s district went for Clinton but he’s got a tough re-election fight ahead of him; if Obama wins the nomination he’s going to need the help!  read more »


Where's the Line? Rendell Acts as Clinton "Super-Staffer"

Keep in mind that Scaife’s paper didn’t even attempt to mask the fact that this accusation came from the House GOP press shop. So just how “serious” these allegations are is up to you. We report, you decide, and all that.

For most of the primary campaign, Gov. Ed Rendell acted as a “super staffer” for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, raising serious questions about his use of state resources for political purposes, a state House GOP spokesman says.  read more »


What Does the Primary Tell Us About 'Burgh Mayoral Race?

The answer ranges from “some” to “not much.” There is not necessarily any carryover between this race and next year’s mayoral contest, but the fact that Obama won Pittsburgh but lost Allegheny County should tell us something, no?

On the other hand, this presidential primary is in many ways unique, with no likely carryover. College students helped make Tuesday’s turnout about 20,000 voters more than the November 2007 mayoral election’s. Even if many of these newly galvanized voters gave a rip who Pittsburgh’s mayor is, many dorms will be cleared out by the time next May’s primary rolls around.

That said, Mr. Peduto thinks this kind of coalition could swing the mayor’s race.  read more »


As Race Continues, Dems Focus on Electability

As usual, we’ve found a way to stop focusing on issues – you know, the things that affect peoples’ lives like the economy, war, etc – and are back to talking about process.

Forget the debate over the war in Iraq, the economy, or health-care plans. The candidates’ handlers and surrogates certainly have.

These days, the battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton is mostly about electability, about who has the better chance to win in the fall.

And both sides have an argument to make – having to do with the electoral map, among other things – which hasn’t always been the case.  read more »


Payback for Obama Surrogates? Hello, Sen. Casey!

The real point is that Senator Casey backed the man who will eventually be the Democratic nominee and perhaps the next president. That’s worth a lot more than a bit of bruising in his home state. No big deal.

On the surface, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey looks like one of the biggest losers in the Democratic presidential contest.

The state’s junior senator backed Sen. Barack Obama — and traveled with him across the state — and Obama lost by 9 percentage points to Sen. Hillary Clinton statewide. In Lackawanna, Casey’s home county, Clinton crushed Obama by a 74 percent to 26 percent margin.  read more »


After Clinton's Surprise Margin, Many Credit Rendell

The “Rendell Factor” is 2-5 points? Really?? I’d have to guess that’s closer to the lower end. He probably helped keep down the Obama vote as much as anything else…

Ask pollsters or political analysts or Democratic Party leaders, and they all say Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s more than nine-percentage-point primary victory Tuesday would not have been possible without the support of Gov. Rendell – a politician extraordinaire and prodigious fund-raiser.

Depending on whom you talk to, Rendell’s omnipresence on the campaign trail, enormous popularity, and fine-tuned political machine are responsible for between two and five points of Clinton’s nearly double-digit win.  read more »


Philly Suburbs Fueled Clinton Win

No one seems to be able to say why she did so much better than expected in the Philly suburbs. One reason is that women made up 58% of voters, but it really doesn’t explain her runaway win.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won Pennsylvania on Tuesday in large part because she kept Sen. Barack Obama from burying her in Philadelphia and did much better than expected in the suburbs, targeted by both sides as the key battleground.

Obama needed to offset Clinton’s strength elsewhere by rolling up big margins in the city and carrying the suburbs – homes to large numbers of the African American, affluent and college-educated Democratic voters who coalesced behind Obama elsewhere.  read more »


Clinton Hangs On, Says She's Not a Quitter

So, it’s Wednesday morning, Hillary won by a comfortable margin… now what? Her campaign is struggling for funds and nationally voters have decided her opponent is better. Where does she go from here?

“Some people counted me out and said to drop out, but the American people don’t quit, and they deserve a president who doesn’t quit either,” Clinton told cheering supporters last night at the Park Hyatt Philadelphia at the Bellevue. “Because of you, the tide is turning.”  read more »


Live Updates of PA Primary Results

I’ll be around doing live updates all night as we start to hear results on the big race.

10:19pm: As you can see, I’ve changed the headline above. Hillary wins! Obama might get a bit closer, but Philadelphia and Pittsburgh votes are mostly counted, so it looks like we’ve got a winner. Clinton has managed to hold on to a strong enough lead to keep her campaign viable… I think.

10:02pm: Am I the only one bored with suspense??

9:37pm: Seems like it’s still way too early to predict, so I’m not sure why news outlets are calling it. The percentage seems to fluctuate widely and many big areas haven’t gotten results in yet… Clinton 54 / Obama 46 right now.

9:25pm: Lots of Philly and suburbs aren’t in yet, so this race could very easily get closer for Obama.

9:22pm: Oh and McCord country just came in and swept Mann off the table.

9:20pm: By the way, I’m avoiding TV news tonight because it’s been so vapid thus far. But from what I’m reading on the blogs, the pundits are back to the old “it’s in the margin” theory. Of course it is! It always was! Nothing has changed.

Clinton 53 / Obama 47 right now…  read more »


Lieutenant Governor Blows Up in Front of Crowd

Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll accused two prominent Pittsburgh politicians of being sexist after they forgot to introduce her at a rally featuring Bill Clinton. Behind the scenes? Nope, right into the microphone!

“Excuse me! They never recognize the Lieutenant Governor. These two men can’t stand women!”

Listen to the full audio here.


Exit Polls Show Economy Top Concern in PA

Newsweek* has released some early exit polling from Pennsylvania which shows that the economy is the top concern for PA voters. About half said the economy was most important, and about a quarter cited the Iraq war.

As for voting today, about one-fifth said the race of the candidate mattered, and about one-fifth said that gender did. No word on whether the exit poll measured bitterness or asked whether voters were carrying as they exited the polls (either guns or crosses).

  • Disclosure: Keystone Politics contributes to Newsweek’s blog The Ruckus.

Obama = More Factories?

John Micek of the Allentown Morning Call shares this from the streets of Philadelphia. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I don’t think Obama’s bringing factory work back to PA…

At the corner of Broad and Chestnut Streets, we met up with Obama backer Arnetta Reddy, 62, a grandmother of six, and self-described veteran of the civil rights battles of the 1960s. When we happened upon her, she was shouting slogans through an Obama sign she’d rolled into a cone.

“You want your factories to open back up? You’d better vote right the first time,” she shouted. “Vote for someone who’s been a perfect gentleman.”

She broke away long enough to tell us that she knows Obama’s in for an uphill fight today.  read more »


Rendell: Hillary Will Win By 4-6 if Philly Turns Out

From Wendy Warren at the Daily News:

Gov. Rendell was at the Famous deli for the usual election-day power lunch, and sounding positive about his candidate’s chances — but more positive if all of the state’s counties vote.

The guv said that, if the turnout is even through the state, Clinton will win by 6 to 10 points.

If turnout is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by 4 to 6 points, Rendell said.


Clinton Ends PA Campaign with Message of Hope

So here’s my question – is this an actual shift in strategy for Hillary or is the media just covering her more fairly at the 11th hour? Eh, probably a bit of both.

Joined by her husband and daughter, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wrapped up her final Pennsylvania campaign push last night at a passionate rally at the packed and sweltering Palestra.

“This has been an extraordinary campaign, and it has been for all the right reasons,” Clinton told the audience of about 7,000 supporters, who frequently drowned her out by stomping on the old bleachers of the University of Pennsylvania’s arena.  read more »


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