Poll Shows English Trailing Narrowly (!)

July 15th, 2008, posted by Greg Palmer

From Roll Call:

A new poll commissioned by his challenger’s campaign showed Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) trailing in his bid for an eighth term by a single percentage point.

The poll showed businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D) leading English 41 percent to 40 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

English could be in one of the toughest races of his career against Dahlkemper, a political novice who won a four-way primary in April…

Filed under:

Congressman English has a

On July 16th, 2008 Anonymous said:

Congressman English has a couple of advantages. He has the solid, undivided pro-life vote.
He’s also a Republican.
His opponent, if elected, will be forced to conform to the Nanny Pelosi doctrine of kiddie-energy that’s expensive and unreliable. She just won’t be able to stand up to the 86% of Democratic legislators who vote against more oil wells and then can’t figure out why gas prices are high.
Mr. English will support more energy, rather than less. For those who drive cars and trucks, he’s the obvious choice.
Pro-Life, Pro-Driver.

Classics

On July 16th, 2008 Greg Palmer said:

Sure, those are Phil English’s classic advantages. So does this poll mean anything? I think it does – he usually trounces his opponents from the beginning of the race to the end. A close poll like this says a lot about the national climate and the trouble Republicans are in.

English's strengths?

On August 2nd, 2008 Anonymous said:

English will have no “advantage” for his pro-life stance; Mrs. Dahlkemper is also staunchly pro-life. As for voting “against oil wells,” Dahlkemper will likely question why oil companies aren’t drilling on the millions of acres of federal land on which they already hold leases.

I live in the district in question. Steven Porter, an import from New York state who had little grass roots support and no money, came pretty close to unseating English last election—and that was before $4 gas.

English is in trouble this time.

I'm sure I can conduct a 'poll' which showed that

On July 16th, 2008 KevinC said:

Obama is trailing McCain in Chicago. Push polling and oversampling of certain demographics can easily manipulate poll results.

Partisan polling

On July 16th, 2008 Anonymous said:

No doubt, partisan polling has to be taken with a bit of sketicism and not being able to see the internal numbers makes analysis harder, but these results are in line with the district’s voter registration numbers. It’s just about an even split between Ds and Rs with a slight D edge. If the partisan numbers hold, which may well be the case in this election, this poll isn’t unrealistic.

Don't be fooled by the party registration numbers

On July 16th, 2008 Anonymous said:

There is a reason that English hasn’t had a serious challenger in 12 years. Many of these voters may be life-long registered Democrats, but they vote like Republicans due to issues like abortion and gun control.

1992

On July 17th, 2008 Anonymous said:

In general I agree with your description, which applies to most of western PA, of these Dems. However, I see this election as being a lot like 1992 when social issues took a backseat to economic issues and this year add to that the war in Iraq. I think many Dem voters will vote much more along partisan lines in Nov than they might normally. And, remember, party registration is still the single best predictor of how a person will vote.

this race is a target

On July 16th, 2008 Anonymous said:

this race is much more of a target than the CD 18. Whats Dalkemper’s fundraising look like? The DNC should consider resources here, as opposed to wasting them elsewhere.

English's To Lose

On July 16th, 2008 thegentlemanfro... said:

I’m not huge on polling in general, but I put very little stock in partisan polls in particular. Campaigns will release the internal poll with the best results in an attempt to ramp up momentum for their side. I have no doubt that English should run scared (as any Republican incumbent should this year), but he has to go into this election with a decent edge. I don’t know much about Dahlkemper or her abilities as a candidate, but English has a good reputation in the 3rd and has built a relatively moderate-to-right-of center voting record over the years (one that has played well in his district). He also has the presumed benefit of running in a presidential year, in a district that should go for McCain (emphasis on “should”). The DCCC certainly has extra money to burn, but there are higher priorities across the state for them already (4th, 6th, 6th, 8th, 10th, and 11th districts). The 3rd is a race to keep an eye on, but I’d say that at least right now, it’s English’s to lose.

It's Dahlkemper's to Lose

On July 24th, 2008 Anonymous said:

This polling, especially before Dahlkemper has had months to get her personal narrative out, is extremely good news for the Dahlkemper campaign. Her narrative speaks to the district more than any previous Democratic challenger. Once her story is common-place in the 3rd District, those who are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs will support Dahlkemper. The campaign has already shown that they can get the narrative out as Dahlkemper won a crowded primary by 20%. She is a Pro-Life Democrat, a small business woman with a health care background, and a recognized community leader. She understands the needs of the district because she has been living them, while English has been catching Potomac Fever in Washington for the past 14 years.

English should be worried because this race is Dahlkemper’s to lose. Registration in the District now favors Democrats (48% to 42%) and with the trickle down effect of Obama’s registration efforts, Dahlkemper is poised to unseat English. The DCCC, and the rest of the party will be watching this race closely, and I recommend that we do the same. It’s going to be an exciting race in an exciting year.