So glad to see her ousted and the chances of a Republican winning this seat this round are about as good as Gulanni winning California!

I live in the 4th and it is a majority Dem CD. The idea that this is a “swing” or “republican” district is based on presidential voting only. It’s a great example of how the assumption that the way a district votes in presidential election years holds lower down on the ballot leads to false conclusions. It doesn’t. Bob Casey, Bill Clinton and Ed Rendell all won the heart of this district, Beaver and Lawrence counties.

Now the residents here aren’t socially liberal, but more traditional, and definately are economic liberals. “Casey Democrats” is a good description.

pd

Melissa has a very credible chance of winning this district. She is doing an excellent job fundraising, she has high name recognition, and a lot of people in the district still support her strongly. Butler County is the only area in the district that is growing and that is a very Republican area. The tension between Altmire’s liberal leanings and the conservative district will soon become more apparent. This pro-life rally is a perfect example. Melissa is strongly pro-life and supported the March for Life every year she was in office. While Altmire told people he was pro-life, he does not have a pro-life voting record and did absolutely nothing to support the March for Life. This shouldn’t be suprising, if he wants Democratic leadership to continue to let him put his name on his “feel good” legislation, he better not step out of line.

Steve

Personally, I’ve always liked Melissa and feel she was an extremely hard-working legislator both in her years in state government and in her first years in Washington. However, her, shall we say, “attitude” seemed to change when she began rubbing elbows with GOP heavyweights in Congress. She was pegged as a real “up and comer” by the Republican leadership, and she seemed to begin to buy in to her own press. She certainly overlooked Altmire in 2006, and by the time she realized it, voters in the 4th bounced her. Of course, Melissa had the national tide working against her as well, but if she acted like she actually gave a damn (excuse my language) during the last cycle, she’d probably still be sitting in Congress today. As for this year, it seems like Hart is the best option for Republicans (although I’d like to see state Senator Orie or state Representative Turzai run). The 4th is on the NRCC’s radar, so the resources will certainly be there for Melissa. As a supporter, I certainly hope she makes better use of them this time.

I am amused by Melissa’s reaching back into the abortion issue, an issue on which she and the incumbent are agreed. Problem is that I and a lot of others are sick of this issue. With all the problems facing the country that Congress needs to be dealing with, there is no room on the agenda for abortion, an issue to be found nowhere in Congress’ powers under Article I of our Constitution.

I am a conservative. That means confining government to its Constitutional authority. Abortion simply is not on the list of enumerated powers in Article I. It is purely a religious/theological issue, and I have no respect for people on either side who try to campaign on it instead of the issues facing our nation.

From a report today, it appears Missy will not have to face Ron Francis in a GOP primary. Perhaps he is going back to playing hockey…er…oh, wrong Ron Francis….

While it saves her a bit of money for the General, it also will take this campaign off the radar until late in the game.

Hart did carry water for the big boys who supported her, like Santorum and DeLay. This time out, she doesn’t have that “advantage.” And while, yes, part of her loss to Jason can be attributed to a turning tide, so can her original election to Congress. She rode that wave long and hard, but now, it seems, the dream of a permanent Republican majority is humorous at best. If anything, Bush’s continual slide, the war and the economy should bode well for Altmire.

From a campaign standpoint, she’ll be battling from a weak position. Perhaps the only thing in the “good” column for her will be that Jason now has to run on his record. Last time out, they called him “lobbyist Jason Altmire” almost continually and it didn’t really stick. This time they can drag out all his votes and really slash and burn…if they choose to.

And that will be interesting. Hart claimed that she didn’t let Brabender really unleash the dogs last time and go negative. Will she feel the same way this time or will she (I suspect) go negative “early and often?”

Of course, if I were running Altmire’s campaign, I’d just do a commercial with footage of Melissa on Election Day, when she was in full meltdown mode and claimed that “not all the votes have been counted.” That was scary….

Pilt

Pilt, that comment makes no sense. This race will be on the radar screen of both national parties from very early on because the R’s see it as a good pick up chance and the D’s have to defend it. I’m not sure what you mean by Bush’s continual slide, the polls of his approval rate have been steadily increasing. Also, even the D’s recognize that the tide has turned in Iraq and demanding an immediate withdrawal is no longer a politically attractive stance. Finally, everyone knows the current economic situation was caused by the residential housing bubble and Americans refusing to be smart about how much house they purchased. As much as you wish it won’t be, this will be a very competitive race which Altmire will have a hard time winning. Not having a primary fight only gives Melissa a better chance.

By “not on the radar” screen, I mean, and I still contend, that most VOTERS won’t be paying attention until much later in the year. Yes, it’s an incredibly valuable seat to the Congressional committees and they’ll toss money this way, but, in a Presidential election year, in which voters are going to be deluged with TV commercials for those contenders, I don’t see Missy and Jason making much of a splash, even if they can afford the air time, which is going to be tight.

Bush’s continual slide? His ratings my have ticked up, but how could they not? He is probably the most widely hated President in modern times, if not in history. Everyone, even many of his most ardent supporters have backed away from him, not that that isn’t common in an election year. But seriously; the national sense of waste and ennui that he has engendered in the US over the past 8 years in palpable. EVERYONE wants him gone.

And don’t be fooled by Iraq. It may be “going better,” or not, but it still polls with most Americans as “We want to get out of Iraq. Now.” Of course, your buddy Bush wants, we now learn, to cut side deals to set up a pseudo virtual nation inside of Iraq, so that his rich friends can financially benefit in perpetuity…and his perma-war can continue…all without benefit of Congressional oversight. To wit…

“There is literally no question that this is unprecedented,” said Oona Hathaway, a Yale Law School professor who has written a forthcoming law journal article about the proposed Iraq agreement. “The country has never entered into this kind of commitment without Congress being involved, period.”

And no, most American’s don’t blame the less fortunate for signing up for stupid loans; they blame the predatory lenders and a system that is so unregulated (thank you very much, my neoncon friends…) that it has nearly caused a global economic meltdown…and still may. This isn’t over. The final story of the sub-prime mortgage debacle has yet to be written. After awhile, you can only lower rates just so far…and if history is a teacher, the “stimulus package will be more a press event than a real boost to the economy…

Will it be a feisty face? Oh yea. Melissa will take her snarky show on the road big time, but come next November she’ll be wondering (once again) where those votes are….

Pilt

Just look at the recent history of rematches in Pennsylvania, Gerlach-Murphy for example. Once a candidate has been rejected by the voters, it’s less likely he or she is going to be reelected.

Altmire holds exactly the same views as a good majority of his constituents and the voters here in the 4th. For me, he’s a little too socially conservative, but then I recognize I’m much more liberal than most people who live here. I’m in the minority of 4th CD Dems, but I’ll still be voting for and probably volunteering for Altmire’s reelection effort.

pd

Ok, Melissa’s campaign is dead on arrival. If trends hold, it will be a high democrat turnout this year in the election due to the democratic presidential nominee. In response, Melissa will run one of the most negative campaigns in history (which she has already started).

Constituents will in turn be reminded of Melissa’s lack luster record for the area. Please recall, all she ever claimed she id was have the highway to the airport declared a federal highway without improvements being earmarked to the road.

Constituents will also be reminded of Jason Altmire’s record of supporting industry and development in Pittsburgh.

These facts, coupled with the fact that Melissa will have no leadership position in the house (yes, the house will stay Democrat controlled) will cause voters not to vote for Melissa.

My guess is that it will be 60 to 40 in favor of Altmire. This race will be Melissa’s last stand in politics. After this race, no one will let her run again unopposed and no Republicans will put her up.

As for the NRCC putting money in this race, are you serious? The local chapter is in debt. The national chapter is going to continue to reassess the situation and with a strong Democrat Nominee for President, they are going to pull money from Blue states.

Additionally, this argument was made in support of the former Senator Santorum. Look what happen to him.