Gerlach, Murphy May Now be Considered Safe in '08

November 15th, 2007, posted by Stanley

Ask someone at one of the parties’ congressional campaign committees why they haven’t recruited candidates yet in Pennsylvania’s 6th and 8th districts and they’ll say an announcement is coming shortly. The likely message between the lines: We’re struggling to find anyone to commit.

And the longer that continues, the more political pundits start assuming the seats are safe for incumbents heading into 2008. Such is the case with Democrat Patrick Murphy (8th) and Republican Jim Gerlach (6th), both considered hot pick-up opportunities for their respective opposition parties before the cycle began. But each lawmaker’s campaign has watched — somewhat in awe — as they’ve managed to remain unchallenged less than a year before the ’08 election.

This week’s Rothenberg Political Report listed Murphy’s seat as one of those thought “not to be in play” next year. And it’s hard to challenge his assessment. Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick has said he’s considering a run and will wait until the end of the year to decide, but he’ll be in a deep financial hole just as the presidential candidates suck the state’s donors dry.

Filed under:

Mike Fitzpatrick's "deep financial hole"

On November 17th, 2007 Anonymous said:

If he runs Mr. Fitzpatrick will receive plenty of free coverage from pathetic newspapers like The Doylestown Intelligence.

Recently, in the Intel, I saw an article about local boy scouts that included a photo of the two Republican Bucks County Commissioners and Mike Fitzpatrick.

I think it is much too early to declare Patrick Murphy “safe.”

agreed

On November 18th, 2007 Anonymous said:

i think it is way too early to dismiss any talk “safe seats.” I think there will be some changes in 08. There are multiple Rep. and Dem. seats that will be hotly contested.

Safe yet?

On November 18th, 2007 Greg Palmer said:

I tend to think that these two seats might well already be safe. It’s not too early to hold that opinion; the data we’ve got right now tells us that the incumbents in the 6th and the 8th will probably hold their seats.

For Gerlach, he’s won a few tough elections and it will be very tough to recruit a candidate with the energy and wherewithal to mount an effective challenge. Nothing’s impossible, but the 6th may be safe in ’08.

As for Patrick Murphy, he’s created a sterling public image for himself and is a superstar fundraiser. Anyone, including Mike Fitzpatrick, is worried about going up against him in 2008. He’s already a national presence with an enormous fundraising base; that’s tough to beat.

Murphy should be beatable.

On November 22nd, 2007 Anonymous said:

Murphy should be beatable. He has no seniority and does little more than cast votes that buttress Pelosi and her wing of the Democratic Party. He has no influence on national Democratic Party and serves as little more as an “Uncle Patrick.” Take a look to the right at Patrick Murphy’s 100% ranking on the “liberalism index.” Yeah, he’s a conservative Democrat alright.

steve maloney
ambridge, pa

Where's the logic?

On November 23rd, 2007 Greg Palmer said:

Steve,
I’m not sure I see your logic here.

You don’t like Patrick Murphy or Nancy Pelosi, so Patrick should be beatable? Facts are facts – the guy’s gotten powerful pretty quickly and is going to be tough to beat.