I’ve lived in the 15th for a while now and I think it depends. A traditionally run campaign (ie, DNCC comes in and does exactly what it was trained to do) cannot beat Charlie. He’s well-liked, well-funded, and entrenched.

But I think that seeing that Charles Dertinger get 43.5% of the vote (with only $70,000!!) and Greta Brown (Green candidate) get 2.5% of the vote means that the district can swing toward Democrats. But it won’t be with traditional messaging, etc. Not sure yet what type of campaign Sam is running…