I bet Larry Ceisler’s been having a fun summer watching PoliticsPA go from being essential political reading to being less essential even than the Morning Call’s basically non-existent politics blog. What the hell yo?
Anyway, this was one of the worst polling analyses I’ve ever read, and I don’t know if it was intentionally bad for click-bait reasons, or if it was just bad-bad, but here’s what you need to know.
“Leaners” and “likely voters” are different things. One measures candidate preferences. The other is an educated guess about who’s actually going to show up. A leaner is somebody who’s leaning toward a particular candidate. And a likely voter is who a pollster thinks will vote. Nick’s post weirdly conflates these two things, to make a point that doesn’t make sense. Colleen K catalogs the derp at length if you want to get into it.
The rest of you will do fine just looking at this updated chart of the general election polling:
What it shows is that Tom Wolf’s support is basically unchanged after a summer of ineffective Corbett attack ads, but some Republicans and right-leaning independents have remembered why they’re Republicans, so Corbett’s polling is climbing up from the basement a bit.
No surprise there. All the Keystone Politics writers have been saying this was going to happen for over a year now. The race is going to keep tightening a bit, but the fundamental shape of the contest is no different.