Nobody should get complacent about showing up to vote this November, because Tom Wolf’s victory is by no means assured. We’re going to have a campaign, lots of Republicans are going to come home to Corbett, and lots of right-leaning independents who think they don’t like Corbett right now are going to remember why they hate Democrats.
But it’s still worth pointing out that Tom Wolf’s chances are looking extremely good. Today’s PPP poll showing Wolf winning 55% of the vote was only the latest confirmation of a trend that began way back in February 2013 when Wolf first overtook Corbett in the polls.
The blue vertical line is the date of the Democratic primary, so it looks like Wolf got a nice bounce. Is that going to last?
Well one interesting finding from this poll was that only 79% of Democrats say they support the party’s nominee at this point – a number that will probably end up somewhere around 85-90% by the fall – so it seems perfectly feasible for Wolf to remain at 55% or higher even as lots of right-leaning voters predictably fall away.
And as Jake pointed out, a well-timed piece of ugly Sandusky news out of Kathleen Kane’s office remains a wildcard that could potentially drag down Corbett and downballot Republicans even further.