There’s important evidence that asking voters who they expect to win an election is more predictive than asking them who they want to win, and that’s exactly what this new poll from Robert Morris University Polling Institute asks people about the race for PA Governor:
As Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett prepares for a re-election campaign against Democrat Tom Wolf, barely 30% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of the governor, according to the most recent poll by the Robert Morris University Polling Institute Powered by Trib Total Media.
The Republican governor’s favorability rating in the RMU poll, conducted May 6-13, was 30.8%, virtually unchanged since the university’s previous poll, in February, when 29.4% of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Corbett [...]
More bad news for the governor: In 2010, he won senior citizens by a margin of 63% to 37%. But in the RMU poll, senior citizens now have an unfavorable impression of Corbett by a margin of 57-37. Corbett has lost ground since February, when 48% of seniors responded that they have an unfavorable impression of Corbett.
Note the polling window – the Wolf victory bounce isn’t priced in yet. Hopefully we’ll get a new poll soon looking at the post-election landscape.