The latest Quinnipiac poll results contained an interesting milestone in the Democratic primary for Governor – it was the first time one of the Democratic candidates polled over 50% against Tom Corbett:
The light blue bars represent Quinnipiac’s December 2013 poll numbers.
One thing to consider is that Tom Corbett is around his lowest point right now. He may look weak at the moment, but he’s going to have a ton of money, and most of the right-leaning independents and moderate Republicans who are now telling pollsters they don’t support Corbett are inevitably going to come home to the Republican nominee.
If election campaigns are good at anything, it’s reminding base voters of what they don’t like about the other party.
Is Tom Wolf always going to be people’s favorite candidate against Tom Corbett? We don’t know that yet, but there’s some anecdotal evidence that the more business-minded Republicans in York are switching parties to vote for Wolf and it seems plausible that as a business owner and self-funder without a long voting record in a legislature, he’s best positioned to capture more of the disaffected 2010 Corbett voters than some of the other Democratic candidates.