PPP is at it again: The Democratic pollster dropped some more numbers today that is more bad news for Republican incumbents in non-safe districts. Since they already proved that Pat Meehan (R, PA-7) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R, PA-8) are in danger of losing their seats, they’ve moved onto Jim Gerlach (R) in PA-6 — and almost surprisingly, his numbers are worse than both Meehan’s and Fitzpatrick’s:
- Jim Gerlach Approval
- Approve: 34%, Disapprove: 43%
- Government Shutdown Plan to Stop Obamacare
- Support: 31%, Oppose: 63%
- Debt Default Plan to Stop Obamacare
- Support: 33%, Oppose: 58%
- Would you vote for Jim Gerlach or a Democratic Opponent?
- Jim Gerlach: 41%, Democratic Opponent: 46%
A ‘generic’ candidate normally does better against an incumbent than a named challenger — but that’s only under the assumption that Democrats run mediocre candidates for these seats. Additional proof that these numbers might be more real than you would initially think are the facts that:
- The Republican Party has its worst approval numbers in history;
- In GOP-held seats, 67% disapprove of Republicans in congress;
- 60% of Americans believe every member of congress should be removed; and
- Potentially most important, Democrats now lead the generic House ballot, 47-39.
PPP has come under fire recently for some of their choices of methodology — some of which are understandable, but their accuracy was never in question. They were one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2012 election.