McGinty poll shows “very real potential to emerge victorious”

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In a fundraising email sent out by Former PA Dems Chair T.J. Rooney, Katie McGinty’s campaign chair, the McGinty campaign revealed the results of their recent internal poll.

According to McGinty’s pollster Fred Yang,  “[i]f the McGinty campaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidate’s exceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the very real potential to emerge victorious.”

I’ve linked to the five page memo further below, but here’s the meat of Rooney’s email:

I have important news to share with you about Katie McGinty’s campaign for governor.

A just completed poll by one of Pennsylvania’s most respected pollsters— Fred Yang, who is also Senator Bob Casey’s pollster, shows the following:

  • The Democratic primary remains wide open, with a large proportion of undecided voters.
  • The Democratic primary becomes a two-person race between Katie and Allyson Schwartz after voters are heard positive descriptions of all the candidates, including Schwartz, Rob McCord, and Tom Wolf.  With a working–class background, her record as a job-creating environmentalist, and her focus on improving the lives of middle class families, the poll shows Katie is exactly the right fit for Democratic voters.
  • 87% of Democratic voters find Katie’s unique background as an environmentalist and job creator to be extremely appealing; while only 46% find appealing the profile of Congresswoman Schwartz (who has more than 20 years in elected office, including the past decade in Congress).
  • The race is a dead heat outside the Philadelphia media market, with Katie demonstrating across the board appeal, including with key Democratic primary constituencies.

To view the five page polling memo, click here.

The results of the poll should be received well by Congresswoman Schwartz’s competitors. Right now, Schwartz is leading the race because of name ID (51%). Yet, Schwartz’s name ID advantage is not proportionate to the vote that she’s getting (25%). That means that many voters know who Congresswoman Schwartz is, but did not indicate that they would vote for her.

McGinty, as the 2nd place candidate, is in a very good strategic position. This is because both Rob McCord and Tom Wolf are likely to campaign negatively against the frontrunner, Congresswoman Schwartz, which will bring Schwartz’s numbers down. At the same time, the 2nd place candidate will likely remain un-targeted. Thus, if polling shifts at the just the right time, the candidate in 2nd place (right now, McGinty) will take the lead.

All of that said, internal polls should (as Keegan Gibson always says) be “taken with a grain of salt.” They are released for a specific purpose for the advantage of a single candidate, and the veracity of the poll will be tested when more non-partisan polling is published.

About Jake Sternberger

Jake Sternberger was a contributing writer at Keystone Politics from 2011 to 2014.
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