Public Policy Polling says Tom Corbett could be big trouble in 2014, as he currently trails a generic Democrat 47-37.
And hopefully that continues to be the case, but just to adjust everyone’s expectations downward a bit, it’s important to remember that this poll is a snapshot of the current moment. That’s what might happen if the 2014 election were held today.
But the 2014 election will not be held today. It will be held two years from now when odds are that a more substantial national economic recovery will be underway. The 12 million jobs the Romney was claiming would materialize under his policies are actually the baseline – as in, what we can expect to happen if nobody does anything. For the same reason that we can expect Barack Obama to be looking like a genius in 2016, we can probably expect Tom Corbett to have the winds of economic growth at his back during the 2014 campaign.
A similar situation played out in the 90s when the class of GOP Governors who swept into office during the 1994 Gingrich wave ended up benefitting politically from the Clinton boom despite having nothing to do with it.
It’s real crappy, but that’s probably what we’re going to be dealing with. Corbett’s got more baggage than some GOP Governors, like the botched Sandusky investigation and the billion dollars in education cuts, and this is all made worse by the fact that he’s horrible at political communications, so it’s not like it’ll be impossible to beat him. But it just makes it all the more important that Democrats nominate a real workhorse of a candidate who knows how to run an aggressive statewide campaign.