I think the lesson Democrats should draw from the news that conservative SuperPACs and Mitt Romney are pulling their ad spending in PA is not that PA isn’t competitive, but that PA isn’t competitive in a way that further voter persuasion will make a difference.
Most people have made up their minds about who they’re voting for, and more ad spending on trying to sway them isn’t going to do anything. At this point it’s all about who’s going to show up to vote, and on that front the Republican Party’s work is basically done.
Voter ID is the Republican ground game. Rather than spending money turning out Republican voters, who turn out pretty consistently anyway, they can spend no money and block a bunch of Democrats from voting. The work is done. Either the Supreme Court upholds voter ID and enough Democratic votes get suppressed for Romney to win, or voter ID gets struck down, or Democratic turnout beats expectations and Romney loses. Whatever the outcome, there isn’t really anything left for Team Red to do in PA but wait.
Democrats, on the other hand, would be making a huge mistake diverting campaign resources out of GOTV in PA.